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Canada


Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel


Latest projection: April 21, 2024
LPC safe hold
Note: The terms "hold" and "gain" are used to compare current projections with transposed 2021 results onto the new electoral map.
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 64% ± 8%▼ 14% ± 5%▲ 9% ± 5% 9% ± 4% 3% ± 4%▲ LPC 2021 69.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 21, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 21, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LPC 64% ± 8% CPC 14% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 4% BQ 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC CPC NDP BQ

Odds of winning | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel

LPC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2024-05-01 2024-07-01 2024-09-01 2024-11-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 LPC NDP

Recent electoral history | Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel



2019 2021 Proj. LPC 61.5% 69.7% 64% ± 8% CPC 12.0% 10.5% 14% ± 5% NDP 6.4% 8.2% 9% ± 4% BQ 9.4% 7.9% 9% ± 5% PPC 1.1% 3.8% 3% ± 4% GPC 2.6% 0.0% 2% ± 2%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.